Wellington counts more Tokelauans than in the atolls
With 9,822 Tokelauans counted in Aotearoa against 1,647 residents on the atolls, the seawalls funded under the COP30 adaptation targets will decide which of those two figures grows.
“Because a cyclone leaves no interval for clarification, warning wording in Funafuti and Tarawa gets fixed during the calm months.”
The 2023 New Zealand census recorded 9,822 people of Tokelauan descent, 4,185 of them in Wellington and 2,406 in Auckland. Tokelau counted 1,647 residents at its 2019 enumeration, roughly a sixth of the diaspora figure. There is a severely endangered rating on gagana Tokelau from UNESCO. Migration moved the speaker base out of the atolls. Because most speakers live in Niu Hila, clerks in Wellington draft their hazard notices. The Tokelau public service prints the rest from Apia.
Across the kiwi Tokelauan population, 23% report speaking gagana Tokelau. The share falls to 13% among those under 15. In 2006 the census returned 37%, a gap of 14 points across 12 years. A further 546 Tokelauans live in the Bay of Plenty. Te Manatū mō ngā Iwi o te Moana Nui a Kiwa, the Ministry for Pacific Peoples supplied the speaking figures behind the census ethnic counts. From 2027 the Belém reporting cycle will draw on them.
In November 2025 the Parties at COP30 adopted 59 Belém Adaptation Indicators under the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience. UNESCO had submitted 8 heritage-related indicators into a pool of 100 candidates. Expert review passed 5 of them. To protect cultural heritage from climate-related risks, Target 9(g) tells Parties to design climate-resilient infrastructure guided by traditional and Indigenous knowledge systems.
The Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure launched Infrastructure for Resilient Island States at COP26. Under the initiative, 57 small island developing states qualify for support. Four donors have committed 35 million USD against a target of 50 million USD by 2030. Australia and India put money in beside the European Union and the United Kingdom. For a finance ministry the disbursement column matters more. Bilateral donors have been paying out at a higher rate than the dedicated climate funds.
Under IRIS, the Coalition works with the Pacific Community on national geospatial databases of hazards and infrastructure assets. Three governments have joined. Officials in Port Vila and Tarawa file into the inventory with counterparts in Nukuʻalofa. Once the survey closes, the databases will supply the early-warning systems of the three states.
Because a cyclone leaves little interval for respite, warning protocols in Funafuti and Tarawa gets fixed during the calm months. A localisation programme in Tuvaluan and Kiribati pinned alert categories to fixed instructions. Category 3 carried an imperative sentence with no variants. To villagers the earlier advisory had looked optional. Two review rounds later, the phrasing carried a direct order. It was the responders who forced that change.
Given the volume of hazard material in circulation, planners ask about machine output early in hopes to minimize rushing. Engines Like ours, which are unparalleled since they are trained on abundant text produce more fluent Tokelauan sentences than most LLMs out there. See it for yourself, check out our comparison pages, graded side-by-side for gagana Tokelau. Five engines face the identical source passage.
Australia signed the Falepili Union with Tuvalu in 2023. The treaty entered into force in August 2024 and opened a permanent-residence pathway for up to 280 Tuvaluans a year. On June 16, 2025 registrations for the inaugural ballot opened. Tuvaluan citizens filed 2,474 primary entries. Spouses and dependent children brought the covered total to 8,750 people. Against a resident population near 11,000, Australia granted Tuvaluans the full 280 places in the first program year and drew a second ballot in 2026.
For a family in Funafuti to enter the ballot, the registration comes first. It falls to Home Affairs to draw the entries at random. Selected registrants then file the visa application with health and character evidence. Officials publish the sequence in English. At stage one ballot entry costs A$25 and the visa application at stage two costs A$200. Only in the support services around the visa does Tuvaluan appear. An error in an eligibility clause costs a family its place among 2,474 entries.
Once a family arrives in Porirua, the question changes shape. Wellington ministries fund Pacific-language services from a budget line unconnected to infrastructure money. Suva has drafted a diaspora policy for Auckland to use. For those drafters terminology proved harder than the politics of the document. The Belém infrastructure indicator counts the seawall at Funafuti. It counts only assets inside the reporting state. Because the two returns stay separate, New Zealand reports the Porirua speakers and Tokelau reports the atoll figure.
At Barki village in Rajasthan, UNICEF worked with Gram Gaurav Sansthan on the pokharas and paras, the earthen basins of the district, alongside underground reservoirs and solar-powered pumping. Rebuilding the storage kept families in place through the dry season. Seasonal migration fell. Through later summer shortages the village held. Because the programme did not import a technical vocabulary with the engineering, villagers maintaining the structures still use their grandparents' terms. A district officer writing the maintenance schedule writes in the masons' words.
The G20 and Coalition compendium records a parallel case in Afghanistan. Indigenous to the region, mud construction and traditional seismic joints kept heritage buildings upright through successive earthquakes. The compendium does recommend pairing those methods with modern resilience measures. For the specification writers the pairing is a pricing problem. A mason's term for a joint has no entry in a structural code. The engineer drafting the specification needs the term glossed. Without the gloss a project keeps the imported measure and drops the local method.
Since 2015 the Sendai Framework has named Indigenous knowledge as an input to disaster risk management. The text states that traditional and local practices complement scientific knowledge. On a parallel schedule UNESCO opened the International Decade of Indigenous Languages. Recognition of this kind costs a drafter nothing, though it costs money in the hazard glossary and the evacuation instruction fields of a working bulletin. To fill those fields, a responder specifies the alert-level terms and the national office signs off the imperative wording.
While drafting the 2027 return, a statistician confronts the counting problem. Statistics New Zealand staffed its 2023 census helpline in nine spoken languages. Coverage of Pacific groups in that count has drawn scrutiny. On the helpline list Samoan and Tongan appeared. Gagana Tokelau did not. Sample surveys in English return English-speaking Tokelauans. In practice what the questionnaire measures is enumerator fluency. The indicator will then report a rise in resilience while the transmission rate falls.
To report under Target 9(g), a statistician needs a glossary in place. Commissioning it takes a budget decision in 2026 rather than a pledge for 2030. Atafu and Nukunonu post their school circulars and hazard notices in English. From adoption the Belém methodology programme runs two years. Inside that period Tuvalu draws its next ballot. A glossary commissioned in 2026 would be in service for the ballot and for the first return.